2022年对我来说，无论在哪方面，都过得不太好。如果说2021年还抱着走出疫情的希望，2022年则是在迷雾里跋涉，既要顾好自己的眼前，还要担心不在身边的亲人。等到可以回望这一年的时候，应该说，祸福相依，无论是有意还是无意，没有做出太大的鲁莽举动，得以避开了许多险境。也许所谓的，以不变应万变，竟然（果然）是困境里最好的招数。

刚才清理邮箱，看到我喜欢的财经newsletter去年发的最后一封，非常调皮，但也很有道理，尤其是标明了Made in Canada，那就借用过来，毕竟财经既和天下风云息息相关，也决定了我们每天的柴米油盐。有好多用词也值得记一下，毕竟要和年轻人打交道的，学点油嘴滑舌很有必要，因此分享“THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY #1”的简单笔记。英文没问题的，直接点击这里吧。

#TOTHEMOON
A Farewell to FOMO
By Felix Salmon

to the moon : 原本有一个传统的含义，就是向爱人表达爱的程度，好比“月亮代表我的心”。但是在这几年里， 人们更爱的是加密货币，太爱了，太看好它了，觉得它会“涨！涨！涨！涨到月亮上！”

FOMO : The fear of missing out 总是怕错过什么，谁都有FOMO，抢板蓝根，抢口罩，抢莲花清瘟，甚至这几天抢蒙脱石散，其实和抢各种加密货币没啥本质区别，都是FOMO。

Felix Salmon : 本文作者，不知道是不是真名，我不认识她/他/它，但是名字里又是猫（Felix the Cat），又是鱼（Salmon）的，好不热闹。

A year ago, FOMO was everywhere. Wall Street traders feared they were missing out on crypto. Crypto diehards feared they didn’t own enough NFTs. And NFT collectors feared that, by loading up on monkey jpegs, they might miss their chance to ride Rivian to the moon. Those of us who sat out the frenzy could hardly blame anyone who got swept up in it. The S&P 500 recorded 70 closing highs last year, and 171 Canadian companies went public, raising a record $10.2 billion. A Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT sold for US$3.4 million.

diehard : 极端死忠粉，也就是头撞南墙仍然不回头的。

frenzy : 这个词是这两年媒体的高频词汇，意思是“狂热、迷乱”。如果你这两年没有感受到什么frenzy的话，恭喜你，虽然没有发大财，但是应该也没有亏大发。

NFT : 这个我不太懂，不过如果你是懂的，那也不用再知道一遍了，如果你不懂，恭喜你，省钱了。以及，2022下半年，川普发行了他的NFT，不看好他的人说他错过了最好的时候，吃shi都赶不上热乎的，然而，据说都卖光了，妥妥都是真爱。

Then the calendar flipped to 2022, and the world changed. Russia invaded Ukraine. Inflation soared. Interest rates rose. The memestocks imploded. The vibes shifted. And, one by one, the pandemic-era highfliers fell to earth: Peloton, Netflix, Zoom, NFTs, cryptocurrencies. Even U.S. Treasury bonds, commonly considered the world’s safest asset, saw a record slump.

这段高度总结了2022的各种倒霉悲催。

memestock : 网络人气股票，网红股票。不过这里的网络指的是Reddit等。不知道Reddit是什么？没关系，恭喜你，省钱了。

As of October 1, global stocks and bonds had lost US$36 trillion, with a t, in value. (Assets have only slightly recovered since.) The remarkable thing is not so much that a bust followed the boom — no bull market lasts forever — but rather that the downturn hasn’t sparked a widespread calamity in Canada or in the U.S. Certainly there’s no sign of mass home foreclosures or failing banks, like we saw in 2008. Why not? For one, the average trader who swan-dived into the GameStop ($GME) frenzy last January was a 34.5-year-old male who earned a cushy US$86,000 a year. A Venn diagram of these to-the-mooners and the average crypto trader would almost be a circle. Tomayto, tomahto. These speculators were playing a massive multiplayer game with money as much as they were investing in the classical sense of the term. And they risked their money with their eyes open, since many had previously traded speculative stocks. They knew that they could suffer huge losses, and most $GME latecomers did.

这段告诉你为什么那么多倒霉悲催的事情，我们看到的仍然是岁月静好。因为：1 “无知者”无感也不输钱；2 赔钱的都是肉厚的，应该也有肉不够厚的，看最后一句，全靠那些吃不上热乎的来接盘，所以最终都是自认倒霉。

Tomayto, tomahto : 都是蕃茄，英音美音读音不同，大意就是“五十步笑百步”、“半斤八两”、差差不多没啥区别的意思。

swan-dive : 很形象了，一个猛子扎进水里，就是拿全副身家搏一记了。问题是为什么总拿天鹅来说事，我觉得这个动作做得最好的是鸊鷉和潜鸟。

Some might have regretted the whole thing. Yet the fun many of these YOLO traders had more than made up for their dismal returns. It was for the lulz. It’s no shock, then, that, after a bloodbath of a year, Redditors and crypto bros, as a rule, don’t have their tails between their legs: they’re tweeting about Bitcoin and Ethereum almost as much as they ever have, and they’ve kept $GME up more than 2,000% from early 2020, despite the company having lost billions.

YOLO : You Only Live Once. 人只活一辈子，谁说不是呢？不过要是逢有重大事情都这么想，那的确是不成功，便成仁；只不过不成功的居多。又，不过，你看很多成功人士创业初期的勇猛精进都是因为认定了YOLO。

lulz : 自嘲，或嘲笑别人付出的代价。YOLO输了就必然要LULZ，不然呢？You Only Live Once是没错，但是你在一辈子里可以很多次地YOLO。

bloodbath : 太形象了，就是“血洗、大屠杀”的意思。所以，不要晕血！

have their tails between their legs : 丧气狗才夹着尾巴，不夹着尾巴当然就意味着不服输，不气馁。前面就说了嘛，还是肉厚，经得起折腾。

Fortunately for the rest of us, the pain caused by the bursting speculative bubble has been narrowly circumscribed. Researchers have found no evidence of contagion in the stock market from the $GME mania; only one hedge fund, Melvin Capital, landed in real trouble. Similarly, FTX’s collapse has spread no obvious hurt into traditional finance, since most big banks (smartly, in retrospect) avoided the space.

这段话的意思就是没卷进去的大部分人都没有中枪，虽然硝烟弥漫，但未伤及无辜。

Zoom out to average investors — to us normies — who didn’t jump into the frenzy: few are thrilled by the declining markets, of course, but many remain cautiously optimistic. (Why else do we keep piling into stocks at any hint of cooling inflation?) The relatively rosy vibes at least partially owe to the fact that, while stocks have fallen, they haven’t fallen that much. This year’s losses leave the S&P 500 up 15% from February 2020 and the TSX 60 north 10% over the same period (with the latter down a mere 8% YTD). The 2022 drop was significant, to be sure, but the fact that it wasn’t worse is pretty impressive, given that the world is reeling from the worst global pandemic in a century and the outbreak of war in Europe and broad inflationary unrest.

简而言之，广大普通散户情绪稳定，因为损失有限，并没有比2020年2月更糟糕，更何况2022经历了百年未有之变局呢。

north : 上北下南，左西右东。所以往北就是向上。

For a market decline to really sting, it needs to be accompanied by a recession, mass layoffs, and a sharp hit to earnings. We haven’t seen any of that yet. But there are legions of doomsayers (many pro investors among them) who suspect that we will soon. If they’re right, it’ll likely be because stubbornly high inflation necessitates more jumbo rate hikes. That, in turn, could accelerate job losses and force people who are out of work and cash-strapped to sell their stocks and other assets. Or it could just freak out people enough to sell. Either way, the pain would spread. To avoid such a scenario, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada need to pull off a so-called soft landing — that is, avoid a recession while steadily pushing down inflation. (There’s some evidence that Wall Street thinks they might just succeed.)

doomsayers : 悲观论者

pro investor : 专业投资人士，大概也包括一些闷声发大财的懂经老爷叔

What if the central banks fail? So far, the end of the FOMO era has helped those of us who didn’t chase moonshots feel a tiny bit better about our comparatively small losses. If the doomsayers are right and the economy does tip into a recession, we may stop feeling so ahead of the game. But history suggests that the boring things that kept us from taking big risky bets last year — discipline, diversification, steadily investing over a long period — will again carry the day.

最后两段就是发鸡汤打麻药了，希望经济软着陆，如果不能软着陆，那反正也有心理准备了，自律，分散投资，持续投资这吉祥三宝仍然管用。

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

2022年毕竟过去了，祝你我在2023年平安喜乐！